{"meta":{"id":"https:\/\/api.iclient.ifeng.com\/ipadtestdoc?aid=ucms_7yLMhXM2SnZ","type":"doc","o":"1","documentId":"ucms_7yLMhXM2SnZ"},"body":{"newStatus":"1","documentId":"ucms_7yLMhXM2SnZ","staticId":"ucms_7yLMhXM2SnZ","title":"你到底调整不调整?","shareTitle":"你到底调整不调整?","thumbnail":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/w150_h106_q100\/img1.ugc.ifeng.com\/newugc\/20200723\/23\/wemedia\/4a3f0ffbc463e4fa3bd71499c030c3fa64a2ca07_size31_w388_h259.jpeg","source":"格隆汇","author":"","editorcode":"weMedia","editTime":"2020-07-23 23:28:07","updateTime":"2020\/07\/23 23:28:07","wapurl":"http:\/\/\/\/feng.ifeng.com\/c\/7yLMhXM2SnZ","introduction":"","wwwurl":"http:\/\/\/\/feng.ifeng.com\/c\/7yLMhXM2SnZ","commentsUrl":"ucms_7yLMhXM2SnZ","commentCount":0,"text":"
作者 | 汉阳树<\/p>
数据支持 | 勾股大数据(www.gogudata.com)<\/p>
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昨天收盘后,发生了一件大事,就是美国关掉了中国驻休斯敦的领事馆。<\/p>
虽说是大事,我扫遍市场,其实也就港股反应大,吭哧吭哧跌了2个点。<\/p>
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香港是个小三市场,公司大多不是本地的,资金也是,一有风吹草动,立即死给你看,神经质般的波动比其它市场要大。今年我已经多次经历了我的海外账户(以港股为主)一天4、5个点,甚至6个点的上下波动。早年的时候,在这样剧烈波动的诱惑下,我遇到消息也想动,后来发现自己没有交易天分,一不小心就成了夹头,现在我干脆装死。<\/p>
恰逢今天周四,A股素来有黑色星期四之说,上周四的暴击想来还历历在目。所以想必许多人都在暗自盘算今天会不会又是一个黑周四。<\/p>
尤其是创业板的成交额,自上周四被暴击后,大家明显有所收敛,创业板的成交额一直在下降,而随着指数企稳,又有上攀之势,上涨的一致预期又在逐渐形成,昨天创业板的成交额又放大了。<\/p>
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结果下午大幅回调,明显要教训一致预期,收盘后又出个这样的事,难免对周四要犯嘀咕。<\/p>
今天的走势与上周四,上半场是比较像的,先是上涨,然后掉头向下,眼看又是一个黑周四。唯一的区别是,这次没有一篇文章点杀茅台,并由这一点杀带动对消费、医药大白马的屠杀。<\/p>
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或许恰恰是这一区别,让今天最终没能复制上周四,上午11点之后,生物医药越战越勇,涨到人目瞪口呆,最终带领创业板大涨1个点。创业板指数成分股里,医疗是第一权重板块,已经占了31%,创业板50还要高些。所以买创50指数基金,基本上是买医药与科技。<\/p>
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遗憾的是,我没有一只医药股,连医药ETF都不曾有过,不过食品饮料里,也有强悍到怀疑人生的酱油。<\/p>
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A股三千,我独服海天。<\/p>
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整体盘面上,今天下跌占三分之二,上涨大概三分之一。行业上看,按申万一级来分,也就是8个行业是红的,休闲服务涨了5.78%,看似了不得,其实只是因为4000亿的中国神兔涨停了,我半路弄丢了,现在涨到没脾气。然后就是国防军工,今天大涨4个点,可以理解。后面就是医药、家电等。商业贸易跌这么少,大概是大家都有潜在王府井的梦想,会成为神兔的小弟。<\/p>
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跌得最多的是通信,但通信叫不上惨,最惨的当属银行地产,今年没怎么涨,今天的跌幅也可以。<\/p>
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金融地产有三傻,招行、平安与万科,万万没想到7月会这样走,想怜悯一下都害怕。独一波行,总算差强人意,给金融地产保留了一些颜面。<\/p>
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整体看下来,市场又想调整,又怕调整给别人捡了便宜去,所以没有宏观大变量,想再下去,比较难。但想当当当的一口气涨上去,我觉得短期可能也不容易。这里继续会是一个到底调整不调整的拉锯战。<\/p>
虽然央妈的货币政策基调依然是宽松的,但边际上有些不想再宽松的意思,市场的降准降息预期都落空了。从经济数据看,国内的经济确实边际在向好,许多经济数据超了预期。<\/p>
二季度经济增长了3.2%,据说这可能是1840年鸦片战争以来,我们将首次见证中国的单季度GDP超过美国的GDP,静等美国数据。<\/p>
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GDP分三块,先看投资,下图是累计,如果算当月的话,5月、6月已经转为正增长,房地产与基建很给力。<\/p>
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出口有些弱,但鉴于欧美的防疫形势,这已经很不错了。<\/p>
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社零低于预期其实只是汽车零售的拖累,这块可能经济学家做预测的时候,忘记去年6月因国五换国六的大促销了,导致去年汽车零售在下跌趋势中,6月却跳涨17.8%,今年6月下滑8.2%,但你把两年数据一起看,2020年6月较2018年6月是增长了8%,这是一个不错的数据了。<\/p>
<\/p>
所以总结一下,可以说现在的经济不好(速度都大不如前),但投资看的不是绝对值,而是边际值,经济现在在经历59分,向60分,65分的改善,这是投资最喜欢的趋势。<\/p>
经济又不好(整体不好)又好(边际向好),有实力的企业是最先受益的,没实力的企业可能等不到全面向好就挂了,也因而,拥抱确定性泡沫会继续是主旋律之一,尤其是在边际有些收紧但较长时间内仍然是低利率的环境下。<\/p>","img":[{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/EBC71A00F583EF8C2EFAE6F7C1352FF947D46C27_size6_w1080_h44.jpeg","size":{"width":"640","height":"26"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/D670659B0DD2C41A696EFF470EC5824B15E22BD1_size245_w996_h712.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"457"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/0674B4CF3EC5DBA8DE2D4ABEAF48208BBD7925CF_size248_w994_h715.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"460"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/A731A51FD3A1052A6F8AAE9EB34F7C9589326978_size224_w1080_h514.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"304"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/E89C41A7C1A93CA830769CD952B4266B8A3C406D_size138_w991_h708.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"457"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/6717C20C0F65C8FEDCC943F4CC6E52EFE48D33E9_size190_w1080_h509.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"301"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/581FC027050ED04A75DE861568D062F0BDB6F36E_size176_w990_h711.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"459"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/3ABE0EEFA833ECB7F37CBDC9FB447E3710D12F9F_size112_w990_h655.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"423"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/C36C86DC48DA547231A1B1F0F2378FC85A776C90_size105_w987_h634.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"411"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/35B60B5CA6DB20EC0E4BFF1349DCEE1AB3FEA5A7_size219_w991_h710.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"458"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/730C94346EC6813C02F640533CEE55F6446DACA7_size424_w1080_h723.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"428"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/2733EB056C8EBD8326B9884A8278FAB43CCBEA36_size352_w1080_h723.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"428"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/32BE94974E2E6B1443D9032FD19B1F5E90C5C3BC_size466_w800_h535.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"428"}},{"url":"http:\/\/d.ifengimg.com\/mw640_q100\/x0.ifengimg.com\/res\/2020\/0A5FC301EFAB971DE3CD8E10E6A9047E157E3CCA_size361_w1080_h723.png","size":{"width":"640","height":"428"}}],"summary":"作者|汉阳树数据支持|勾股大数据(www.gogudata.com)昨天收盘后,发生了一件大事,就是美国关掉了中国驻休斯敦的领事馆。虽说是大事,我扫遍市场,其实","sharesummary":"作者|汉阳树数据支持|勾股大数据(www.gogudata.com)昨天收盘后,发生了一件大事,就是美国关掉了中国驻休斯敦的领事馆。虽说是大事,我扫遍市场,其实","commentType":"0","wemediaEAccountId":"4733","showclient":"0","shareurl":"https:\/\/ishare.ifeng.com\/c\/s\/v002wpZ8fwPOHuukc5I8iaSeAoAzXUy--f-_ePcYpVVZT9GK0__","praise":"1","like_num":"1"}}